Dear employer, if a crisis is a sudden change and adverse, are likely before a, as, indeed, the change was sudden and benchmarks down when they should rise up and down when they should. However, only six months ago, the trend in Spain was good, the bad and overall it was suffering the American mortgage crisis. It took six months of fear, nothing more than that, because the mood and finally the reality reflect a pessimistic scenario. As in Spain, in addition, we campaign involves far stronger.
Until a few days, three indicators were the development of which was used to discuss the crisis in the Spanish economy. The first was unemployment. And with reference to data for the fourth quarter of the EPA: 135,700 unemployed over time and an annual increase of 117,000, ie, a total of 1.927 million unemployed. A serious problem for staff who suffer, but not a problem for the economy. Taking the historical series on the EPA provides the INE , which extends from the first quarter of 2001 (1Q 2001) to 4Q-2007, a total of 28 quarters, we see that the difference in absolute numbers of unemployed is of -21,000. In percentage of the population has increased from 10.94% from Q1 2001 to 8.60% from Q4-2007. The 1T-2003, the absolute number of unemployed was 2.299 million, the highest figure of the period, and the rate was the '11, 96%, rather worse, right? And "Spain was going well." The number of active people has reached 22.4 million from 17.8 from Q1-2001 and the number of employed rose from 15.8 million to 20.4 million, ie, there are 4.6 million more people working, 29.1% more.
The other indicator was considered the harmonized CPI-I, which is what we compare with Europe. Taking the same period 2001-2007, we see that, indeed, in 2007, with an annual change of 4.3%, substantially above the 2006 figure (2.7%), but in 2005 was 3.7% and 2002, 4%. Here, in any case, the problem lies in the fact that the CPI of countries in the monetary union was lower, 3.1%.
The third indicator was the growth rate of construction down, but, as admitted by the President of the Technical Committee of the Association of Developers and Constructors of Spain (APCE), Joseph gave the last ten years has built twice the necessary housing, so it seems logical that down.
Viewing this data in perspective, estimated employer Crisis? What crisis? -titled as the Supertramp album, 1975 -. Crisis of expectations caused by fear, yes, but crisis of foundations in Europe and Spain, no. Given this, I prefer to stay with the awards graduates get the School of Cinema and Audiovisual of Catalonia (ESCAC) or projects the researcher Manel Esteller in the Catalan Institute of Oncology . Naive optimism? No, I just want to bring a bit different.
Joseph Albet
16/02/2009 at 18:28
Dear employer, a year ago I wrote the article, Crisis? What Crisis?, And remember that the fundamental reasons I had then was to go counter to the noise of general crisis. There were 1.927 million unemployed crisis (8.6% of the population) and there is no crisis with 3.207 million unemployed (13.9% of the workforce). There was a crisis with inflation of 4.3% and there is a crisis with inflation of 1.5%. There was a crisis with the Euribor 12 months at 4.29% and there is no crisis with the Euribor at 2:19%. There was a crisis with the price of a barrel of Brent at $ 98, there were crises when they reached $ 147.5 (July 2008) and crisis when there is around 40 $. If there is crisis because domestic demand has fallen and so have exports and imports. There is no crisis because the activity is stopped and there is crisis, as I said in that article, expectations caused by fear, yes, and today there are foundations crisis in Spain and Europe, which then refused. I was wrong, did not think that enters into recession at the end of the indicators so far did not reflect what ended happening.
What I learn from this is the force with the expectations of certain groups to undermine what the data say and not as a forecast can be wrong when the expectations generated mistrust. I'm learning how hard it is to go against the tide, when wanting to encourage the trend towards despair, and instead, it is difficult to try to help temper the euphoria when it comes to irrationality.
However, I may not follow the stubbornness of all the running, but I hold myself to a rock or a log that is in the river course to maintain that we should see more reality and less moods. Even today, when I write this comment, just opened the Mobile World Congress 2009, and La Vanguardia writes about "(...) With a forecast of less than approximately 5000 attendees last year - although it hopes to get to the 50 000 -, and with more than hundred exhibitors at the 2008 edition, which are equipped claro that one of the best sites to make it a business fair. "La Vanguardia on 12 February 2008, referring to the same edition of the congress 2008, said: "Barcelona has completely buried the cartel and accused in the vicinity of the Fira de Barcelona in Hecho tener of 50,000 people in one of the most international conferences and powerful city. The Mobile World Congress are ya dejado PRIMEROS colapsos them square in Spain, endless links to glue them fair and a few hotels and apartments llenos up the flag. "
50,000 attendees in 2008 and 50,000 attendees in 2009, one case was the collapse in the other, because if we do enough! The reality is that it is 50,000 and it is a success.
Joseph Albet
16-02-2009
13/09/2010 at 17:30
When on 16 February 2009, in the sense of crisis, I wrote that comment, but m'aferrava the concept of expectations and moods, which I still think they have much to do with the functioning of the economy . But the reality is very hard and finally made me land. We explained in two articles in September 2010 is competition ...! and its continuation.
What I thought cyclical and that government action could be resolved, sooner or later, is still structural and thus cost.
After more than two and a half years since I wrote this article, we apologize for the title CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS? The content shows a certain superficiality in the treatment of the data and the title, today, some frivolous.
I hope you have already learned!